Facebook just rebranded as Meta, and since then, there’s been a wave of news around initiatives around the Metaverse. VR and AR continue to gain traction, though I’d argue not as quickly as you’d expect for the next breakthrough in human connection.
I have a friend who has been working in VR for the last 8 years and he recently left Shanghai to try his luck in LA, “China is not in love with VR my friend.” were his exact words.
So it got me thinking about pivotal moments in technology that were comparable specifically the creation of the phone, the TV and (to a lesser extent) modern consumer computing.
Firstly, the phone and TV benefit from the network effect, the more users in the network the more valuable. We see the same effect result in social networks.
But i think there’s a more important factor that helps a new innovation become breakthrough i’ll call it the ‘it’s just like…’ effect.
talking on the phone it’s just like hearing them right next to you. watching TV ‘its just like being in the theater’ – you get my principle basis.
So i think there’s a correlation between the ‘it’s just like…’ score and the adaptation, in other words, the more an innovation mimics the incumbent it aims the replace the higher the ‘it’s just like…’ score, the more likely adaptation will be successful.
which is why, i have and continue to have doubts about VR, and the metaverse. what exactly are they just like? ‘it’s just like…’, what? real life?… really?
To be fair however, if you said, VR and the metaverse, its just like a video game… then i’m totally on board. hence this supports the theory the more an innovation mimics the incumbent it aims the replace the higher the ‘it’s just like…’ score, the more likely adaptation will be successful.